Commenting on the 17 August 1999 earthquake in Istanbul , Prof. Dr. Naci Görür pointed out the year 2029 for the citizens living in Marmara . Commenting on the possibility of an earthquake in 2029, Prof. Dr. Naci Görür predicts that an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 to 7.6 may occur if the fault breaks in a part of North Anatolia.
Member of the Academy of Sciences Prof. Dr. Naci Görür said that the probability of an earthquake expected to occur in Marmara within 30 years is 64 % scientifically. For this reason, Görür stated that the 64% probability corresponds to the end of 2029 and expects this earthquake to be between 7.2 and 7.6 magnitudes.
Earthquake Is Expected to Destroy 50,000 Buildings
prof. Dr. Naci Görür thinks that in the event of the expected earthquake in Istanbul, the coastal areas of the European side will be affected the most. It is also predicted that an earthquake of this magnitude will cause damage to more than 50,000 buildings. prof. Dr. The full statements of Naci Görür are as follows:
“The 1999 earthquakes are really interesting in terms of earth sciences. The 1999 earthquakes were predicted to come. After the 1967 Adapazarı earthquake, scientists said in their research that the probability of an earthquake greater than 7 in the Kocaeli region increased. Of course, nothing was done.
The 1999 earthquake was warned in 1997. More than 20,000 people died in one night. The warning we gave in Istanbul still continues and the earthquake we warned has not yet come. It has been scientifically announced that the probability of the expected earthquake in Marmara to happen within 30 years, starting from 1999, is 64%. It has been 23 years since 1999. Since the probability of 64% is until 2029, we have come to the last phase of the work.
In our studies, we have seen that if the fault line, which is a part of North Anatolia under the Marmara, is broken, it will produce an earthquake with a minimum magnitude of 7.2 and a maximum of 7.6. That means a pretty big earthquake. If this earthquake happens, the parts of Istanbul close to the Marmara coast will be exposed to an earthquake of at least 9 magnitude, and the farther away from the coasts, the 8th magnitude earthquake will be exposed.